Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.
Identifieur interne : 000503 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000502; suivant : 000504Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.
Auteurs : Jacques Demongeot [France] ; Yannis Flet-Berliac [France] ; Hervé Seligmann [France, Israël]Source :
- Biology [ 2079-7737 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients.
DOI: 10.3390/biology9050094
PubMed: 32375234
PubMed Central: PMC7284740
Affiliations:
- France, Israël
- Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Hauts-de-France, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Rhône-Alpes
- La Tronche, Villeneuve d'Ascq
- Université Grenoble-Alpes
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.</title><author><name sortKey="Demongeot, Jacques" sort="Demongeot, Jacques" uniqKey="Demongeot J" first="Jacques" last="Demongeot">Jacques Demongeot</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Grenoble-Alpes</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Flet Berliac, Yannis" sort="Flet Berliac, Yannis" uniqKey="Flet Berliac Y" first="Yannis" last="Flet-Berliac">Yannis Flet-Berliac</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory CRIStAL, UMR 9189, CNRS, Université de Lille, Campus Scientifique, Avenue Henri Poincaré, F-59655 Villeneuve d'Ascq, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory CRIStAL, UMR 9189, CNRS, Université de Lille, Campus Scientifique, Avenue Henri Poincaré, F-59655 Villeneuve d'Ascq</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Hauts-de-France</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Nord-Pas-de-Calais</region><settlement type="city">Villeneuve d'Ascq</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Seligmann, Herve" sort="Seligmann, Herve" uniqKey="Seligmann H" first="Hervé" last="Seligmann">Hervé Seligmann</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Grenoble-Alpes</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91404 Jerusalem, Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91404 Jerusalem</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>91404 Jerusalem</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32375234</idno><idno type="pmid">32375234</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/biology9050094</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7284740</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">001432</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001432</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">001432</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">001432</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">001432</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.</title><author><name sortKey="Demongeot, Jacques" sort="Demongeot, Jacques" uniqKey="Demongeot J" first="Jacques" last="Demongeot">Jacques Demongeot</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Grenoble-Alpes</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Flet Berliac, Yannis" sort="Flet Berliac, Yannis" uniqKey="Flet Berliac Y" first="Yannis" last="Flet-Berliac">Yannis Flet-Berliac</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory CRIStAL, UMR 9189, CNRS, Université de Lille, Campus Scientifique, Avenue Henri Poincaré, F-59655 Villeneuve d'Ascq, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory CRIStAL, UMR 9189, CNRS, Université de Lille, Campus Scientifique, Avenue Henri Poincaré, F-59655 Villeneuve d'Ascq</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Hauts-de-France</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Nord-Pas-de-Calais</region><settlement type="city">Villeneuve d'Ascq</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Seligmann, Herve" sort="Seligmann, Herve" uniqKey="Seligmann H" first="Hervé" last="Seligmann">Hervé Seligmann</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region><settlement type="city">La Tronche</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Grenoble-Alpes</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91404 Jerusalem, Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91404 Jerusalem</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>91404 Jerusalem</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Biology</title><idno type="ISSN">2079-7737</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32375234</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>16</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2079-7737</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>May</Month><Day>03</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Biology (Basel)</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E94</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/biology9050094</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Demongeot</LastName><ForeName>Jacques</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Flet-Berliac</LastName><ForeName>Yannis</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory CRIStAL, UMR 9189, CNRS, Université de Lille, Campus Scientifique, Avenue Henri Poincaré, F-59655 Villeneuve d'Ascq, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Seligmann</LastName><ForeName>Hervé</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91404 Jerusalem, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>03</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>Biology (Basel)</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101587988</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2079-7737</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">covid-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">heat inhibition</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">temperature sensitivity</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">weather-dependent virulence</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflict of interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>31</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>24</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>30</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32375234</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">biology9050094</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3390/biology9050094</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7284740</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Fortschr Med. 1977 Feb 10;95(6):331-5</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">557021</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Acta Biotheor. 2010 Sep;58(2-3):277-305</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20706773</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr 30;382(18):1708-1720</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32109013</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Viruses. 2020 Feb 25;12(3):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32106567</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Health Geogr. 2014 May 27;13:15</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24885343</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Biology (Basel). 2020 Mar 08;9(3):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32182724</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Animal Model Exp Med. 2018 Jul 28;1(2):125-133</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">30891557</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Acta Biotheor. 2013 Mar;61(1):141-72</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23525763</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Apr;134(2):223-30</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16490124</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Nat Commun. 2019 Feb 22;10(1):898</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">30796206</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2015 Jun 18;10(6):e0130594</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26086911</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Health Geogr. 2013 Oct 25;12:47</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24156765</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Adv Virol. 2011;2011:734690</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22312351</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Vox Sang. 2004 Nov;87(4):302-3</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15585028</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Curr. 2013 Jan 28;5:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24045424</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Biomed Environ Sci. 2003 Sep;16(3):246-55</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">14631830</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2010 Sep 23;5(9):e12951</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20886082</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Malar J. 2009 Apr 10;8:61</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19361335</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Israël</li></country><region><li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li><li>Hauts-de-France</li><li>Nord-Pas-de-Calais</li><li>Rhône-Alpes</li></region><settlement><li>La Tronche</li><li>Villeneuve d'Ascq</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Grenoble-Alpes</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes"><name sortKey="Demongeot, Jacques" sort="Demongeot, Jacques" uniqKey="Demongeot J" first="Jacques" last="Demongeot">Jacques Demongeot</name></region><name sortKey="Flet Berliac, Yannis" sort="Flet Berliac, Yannis" uniqKey="Flet Berliac Y" first="Yannis" last="Flet-Berliac">Yannis Flet-Berliac</name><name sortKey="Seligmann, Herve" sort="Seligmann, Herve" uniqKey="Seligmann H" first="Hervé" last="Seligmann">Hervé Seligmann</name></country><country name="Israël"><noRegion><name sortKey="Seligmann, Herve" sort="Seligmann, Herve" uniqKey="Seligmann H" first="Hervé" last="Seligmann">Hervé Seligmann</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/CovidFranceV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000503 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000503 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= CovidFranceV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:32375234
|texte= Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32375234" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidFranceV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.37. |  |